Transcripts
"The Global Framework for Solutions to Climate Change"
by Aubrey Meyer
- Contravention and Convergence
For twelve years now the IPCC (http://www.ipcc.ch) reports have demonstrated that human-induced global climate change has begun. We know that the 'carbon emissions' from fossil fuel burning are largely to blame. We also know the continued growth of these 'greenhouse gas' emissions augurs badly.
Data from the insurance industry now shows the rate of uninsured economic losses resulting from climate change exceeding the rate of Gross World Product (GWP). On present trends these weather-related damages will match GWP in real terms within a generation or two.
We already have technology and techniques to operate a climate friendly economy, one that does not depend on burning fossil fuels. So why is progress towards these renewables so hard to achieve?
Asymmetric conditions in the economy make 'carbon' cheap and renewables expensive. They also decrease sustainability and increase poverty.
However, imagine a future where climate change has been avoided and humanity's long-term prospects are more secure than now. Looking back from there we see that by definition greenhouse gas emissions have contracted to a safe level and that within this contraction, the per capita emissions levels of different countries have converged.
The fact is this "Contraction and Convergence" process is intrinsic to any emissions scenario that stabilises the rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. So the real questions are only, does this come about by chance and guesswork or by building it formally into an international framework. This largely determines the second question; - at what rate will C&C occur?
The Global Commons Institute (GCI http://www.gci.org.uk/ ) believes that to start as soon as possible with this contraction of ghg emissions and international convergence is prudent behaviour. C&C is founded on the already agreed principles of precaution and equity in the UN climate treaty. The more rapid the C&C-led retreat from fossil-fuel dependency, the lower the ultimate damage bill from climate change will be. Atmospheric concentrations of ghgs are the result of 'accumulated emissions'. This means the treaty's objective of safe and stable atmospheric concentrations of the ghgs will still have been the result of the total of historic emissions as well as those under future C&C. Sadly, this means that atmospheric concentrations will continue to rise causing temperature and damages to rise throughout the future C&C process.
With C&C these rises can potentially be brought under control. Without it they can't and the damages will become incalculable.
Many institutions and individuals from government, business, academia the civil service and civil society advocate C&C as a realistic framework within which the international community can agree and enact the policies and measures necessary to avert what nervous corporate CEOs are now calling, "the devastating trends of climate challenge".
Star quote goes to UK Environment Minister Michael Meacher: -"C&C is a very powerful idea and we are moving remorselessly towards it."
Aubrey Meyer
Director, Global Commons Institute (GCI)
37 Ravenswood Road
London E17 9LY
Ph/Fax 00 44 (0)208 520 4742
Mobile 0771 282 6406
e-mail aubrey@gci.org.uk
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